Microsoft Sees Bullish Options Surge as $1.1M Call Bet Targets $410 Strike

By TrendSpider Editor

Microsoft Corporation is drawing attention in the options market this Monday as two unusual call contracts totaling $1,156,500 in premium hit the tape, signaling that at least one trader is making a directional bet on near-term upside. MSFT shares are trading at $390.39, up 1.37% on the session, but

Microsoft Sees Bullish Options Surge as $1.1M Call Bet Targets $410 Strike

Microsoft Corporation is drawing attention in the options market this Monday as two unusual call contracts totaling $1,156,500 in premium hit the tape, signaling that at least one trader is making a directional bet on near-term upside. MSFT shares are trading at $390.39, up 1.37% on the session, but remain well off their 52-week high of $555.45 and not far above the 52-week low of $349.20. The options flow suggests some market participants see a meaningful recovery move ahead, with both contracts targeting the $410 strike.

Key Drivers of the MSFT Stock Move

• Main Catalyst: Two unusual call contracts were flagged today, both at the $410 strike. The larger contract carries $1,104,000 in premium with a size of 800 and expires August 21, 2026. A second contract of 500 in size carries $52,500 in premium and expires July 17, 2026. Combined, these trades represent $1,156,500 in total premium on out-of-the-money calls.
• Bull Case: The concentration of call buying at $410 while shares sit at $390.39 reflects a willingness to pay meaningful premium for upside exposure. The August 21 contract, which accounts for the vast majority of total premium at $1,104,000, gives traders roughly six weeks for MSFT to make a move toward and through the $410 level. A breakout there would represent roughly a 5% gain from current levels.
• Bear Case: Both contracts are out-of-the-money, meaning they expire worthless if MSFT fails to reach $410 by their respective expiration dates. The July 17 contract expires in just four days, making it a high-risk short-duration bet. With MSFT sitting approximately 29.7% below its 52-week high of $555.45, the stock has significant overhead resistance before any sustained recovery is confirmed.

The forward setup for Microsoft is worth watching closely. The stock has bounced off its 52-week low of $349.20 and has been gradually grinding higher, but at $390.39 it remains in the lower half of its annual range. The call activity today could reflect speculation ahead of a near-term catalyst, or simply a momentum trade tied to the broader market's tone. Traders looking for confirmation would want to see MSFT hold current levels and build toward the $410 target that the options flow is pointing to before adding directional exposure.

MSFT Unusual Options Activity

Two unusual call contracts were flagged in today's session, both targeting the $410 strike on an out-of-the-money basis:

• Contract 1: Call, $410 strike, expiring August 21, 2026 | Volume: 800 | Open Interest: 5% OI ratio | Premium: $1,104,000 | Status: OTM
• Contract 2: Call, $410 strike, expiring July 17, 2026 | Volume: 500 | Open Interest: 2% OI ratio | Premium: $52,500 | Status: OTM

No put activity was flagged in today's session, with a put count of zero versus two calls, reinforcing the one-sided bullish skew in today's unusual flow. Total premium across both contracts came to $1,156,500.

MSFT Seasonality

Mid-July has historically been an active period for Microsoft given its proximity to fiscal year-end earnings, which typically draws options volume as traders position ahead of results. The short-dated July 17 contract expiring this week may reflect event-driven speculation tied to any anticipated announcements in the near term.

MSFT Relative Performance

MSFT is up 1.37% on the session at $390.39, which reflects solid single-session momentum. However, the stock's position near the lower third of its 52-week range of $349.20 to $555.45 suggests it has meaningfully underperformed relative to where it traded at its annual peak. A move to the $410 call strike targeted in today's options flow would still leave the stock roughly 26% below its 52-week high, highlighting how much ground Microsoft would need to recover to return to prior highs.