Shopify Bears Place $2 Million Bet With Deep Put Targeting $95 Strike Through 2028

May 22, 2026

By TrendSpider Editor

Shopify Bears Place $2 Million Bet With Deep Put Targeting $95 Strike Through 2028

A notable bearish options contract hit the tape for Shopify Inc. (SHOP) on Friday, May 22, 2026, with a single put position carrying $2,036,250 in total premium drawing attention from options traders. SHOP currently trades at $105.30, sitting near the lower end of its 52-week range of $94.00 to $182.19, leaving the stock roughly 43% below its yearly high. The positioning of this trade, structured well below current price levels and extending nearly three years into the future, signals at least one large participant is hedging against or outright betting on a continued decline.

Key Drivers of the SHOP Stock Move

Main Catalyst: A single unusual put contract was opened on SHOP with a $95 strike price, expiring December 15, 2028, representing 750 contracts with $2,036,250 in total premium. Open interest percentile came in at 95%, indicating this strike saw a significant surge in activity relative to historical norms.
Bull Case: The $95 strike is out of the money relative to the current price of $105.30, meaning SHOP would need to fall another roughly 9.8% before this put moves into the money at expiration. Bulls can argue the stock has already absorbed heavy selling pressure after trading as high as $182.19 in the past 52 weeks, and a floor may be forming near the 52-week low of $94.00.
Bear Case: The sheer size of the premium, over $2 million committed to a single bearish contract, and a 95th percentile open interest reading suggest this is not a casual hedge. With SHOP already down sharply from its 52-week high of $182.19, a well-funded participant is paying to maintain downside protection or directional exposure through the end of 2028, implying expectations of prolonged weakness or a continued deterioration in fundamentals.

The forward setup for Shopify is complicated by where the stock currently sits in its range. Trading at $105.30 with a daily move of just +0.42%, the stock is showing minimal momentum on the session and remains far closer to its 52-week low of $94.00 than its high of $182.19. The December 2028 expiry on this put is particularly notable since it provides the buyer nearly two and a half years for the thesis to play out, suggesting this could be a long-duration hedge tied to macro uncertainty, competitive pressures in e-commerce, or anticipated slowing in merchant growth. The lack of any offsetting unusual call activity on the session means there is no visible options market counterweight to this bearish positioning today.

SHOP Unusual Options Activity

Type: Put | Strike: $95 | Expiry: December 15, 2028 | Volume (Size): 750 contracts | Open Interest Percentile: 95% | Moneyness: Out of the money | Premium: $2,036,250

This was the only unusual contract flagged on the session, with a total of one unusual contract recorded. No unusual call activity was reported, making the day's options flow entirely one-sided to the downside.

SHOP Seasonality

Late May has historically represented a transitional period for e-commerce-linked equities, as investor focus begins shifting toward summer consumer spending trends and upcoming mid-year earnings guidance. A December 2028 expiry suggests the buyer is less concerned with near-term seasonal patterns and more focused on the multi-year trajectory of Shopify's business.

SHOP Relative Performance

With SHOP trading at $105.30 and sitting approximately 42% below its 52-week high of $182.19, the stock has significantly underperformed what many growth-oriented technology and e-commerce peers experienced during stronger stretches of the past year. The proximity to the 52-week low of $94.00 suggests the stock has struggled to recapture bullish momentum, and today's muted +0.42% session gain does little to change that narrative heading into the weekend.